Just like "The Swayz" to ask a question that I am sure he could answer on his own, but I will throw out a couple of explanations because I am bored right now:
First of all, yes, it does take a lot of time to compile all of this information for the wrestling community so I appreciate the compliments.
Second: In the case of Holton who returns 50 points, If Strawn and Roberts don't get any help then they will probably finish around 10th or 11th just like last season.
Third: A good portion of Augusta's returning points came from Josh Weaver who is probably lost for the season.
Fourth: I have no idea what many of these teams have, so i assume that returning state wrestlers will move up from year to year. Typically a team with more qualifiers may have the potention to score more points so they will get the nod.
Fifth: I can only work with the information that coaches are generous enough to supply to me, otherwise your guess is as good as mine
Sixth: I am aware of several very good freshman that will score major points at state, but we have to see how they do at this level before anybody wants their names thrown in there amongst the preseason preview or rankings (see Kansas basketball.)
Seventh: This is all done for fun and to get information out about the 4A schools as best we can. The preseason top team has never matched the top team at the end of the year, so it really doesn't matter, however last season I did successfully predict that Eudora would finish 30th, which we did.
I hope that this helps clear some things up.