You have used your view of the statistics to create your comparison lets look at it another way.

6A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
5A: 448 available varsity spots (32 schools x 14 weights)
4A: 896 available varsity spots (64 schools x 14 weights)
321A: 3374 available varsity spots (241 schools x 14 weights)

Now just for fun I will round some numbers and say that at a 6a and 5a school you should have about 4 kids per weight which means that you have 56 kids on a team times 32 teams. 4A we will say has 3 kids per weight, which means you have 42 wrestlers time’s 64 teams. We will say that every 321A team has exactly a full lineup so 14 per team times

6A: 1792 wrestlers
5A: 1792 wrestlers
4A: 2688 wrestlers
321A: 3374 wrestlers

Available number of varsity spots divided by number of wrestlers
6A: 25% chance of making varsity
5A: 25% chance of making varsity
4A: 33% Chance of making varsity
321A: 100% Chance of making varsity

So the hardest class is 6A and 5A then 4A and last is 321A to make varsity

Now there are 16 people in each weight that make state so there are 224 people that make it to state in each class. 224 divided by the number of wrestlers in each class.

6A: 12.5% chance of making state
5A: 12.5% Chance of making state
4A: 8.3 % Chance of making state
3A: 6.6% Chance of making state

So according to my calculations it is harder for 321A wrestlers to make state and if I were Prant Jr. I would wrestle in a 6a or 5A school because it is easier.

Matt Sims
Colby High School