The number of points coming back only goes so far. If a team has 50 points coming back from two state champions with nothing else, They are probably good for 40-50 points. If a team has 50 points coming back from 5 kids who took 6th place, obviously you would think they could move up at least 3 places each on average and score another 50 for 100 total. Also usually the upper weights graduate a lot more of the placers from the year before than do the lighter weights, so having good people back in the upper weights is usually a little more of an advantage. With this in mind, I expect Eureka to make a run at the top 5 again.
Hoxie would have to really fall flat to not repeat. (I really think they are the best team in the state all classes) After that several teams are very close.